Economic indicators for the U.S., part 2

Import prices - prices of imports - The index reflects the change in import prices for the month. Is an indicator of inflation. Since when calculating the consumer price index (CPI) recorded the prices of imported goods and services, then this value characterizes the contribution of import prices in the overall picture of change in retail prices of a basket of goods and services. Have limited influence on the market. In the standby increase in policy interest rates increase the index value leads to an increase in the base currency. As the U.S. is published each month around the 10 th number in the 13:30 GMT at the same time with the exponent "Export prices". In Germany published in the 20's of each month at 07:00 GMT.

Interest rate - The interest rate (in the general concept) - in each country (region) are the basic interest rates, which are one of the instruments of monetary policy of the state and determined by a special governing body (committee, commission), the central bank of the country (region). The meetings of these bodies (committees, commissions) conducted a number of times a year (monthly), on certain days, and the solution of such meetings shall be made in time. The level of interest rates directly affect the economy of the country (region). High interest rates slow economic activity, and low - encourage her. Have a significant impact on the market. A few weeks before (the decision) of such a meeting market participants speculate about what decision will be made (to leave / change the bid (s) or regulation and monetary policy), and depending on the expectations and immediate solutions formed by the main reaction of investors, and accordingly , the movement of the exchange rate. Published after the meeting of the authorized body of the central bank.

ISM index - index of business activity of the National Association of Managers - It is a survey of purchasing managers in industry. This index is used to assess changes in the new manufacturing orders, industrial output, employment, and inventories and the speed of the suppliers. The numbers below the "45-50" are an indicator of a slowing economy. Often the value of this index is more influenced by psychological factors rather than the actual state of affairs. In calculating the index does not include California. Since the volume of industrial production is not automatically a source of consumer demand, then this indicator approach with caution. Have a significant impact on the market. The growth index value leads to an increase in the dollar. Published in the first business day of each month at 15:00 GMT.

ISM Services index - The index of business activity of the National Association of Managers in the services sector - It is a survey of managers in services in order to assess changes in the industry. The numbers below the "45-50" are an indicator of a slowing economy. Often the value of this index is more influenced by psychological factors rather than the actual state of affairs. The process of consumption of services tends to change with a relatively constant rate, so the dramatic changes the value of this index is influenced by psychological factors. Therefore, when analyzing an index on a pay particular attention. Have a significant impact on the market. The growing importance of this index is a favorable factor for the growth of the dollar. Published in the first days of each month at 15:00 GMT the day after the publication of the index of the National Association of Managers in industry (ISM index).

Jobless claims - Applications for unemployment benefits - Shows the change in the number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits. These figures do not always reflect the real picture of events. They are sometimes distorted by short-term factors, such as federal or local holidays. This indicator can give an idea of how the next time will measure "Nonfarm payrolls". For example, if during the month the indicator value "Jobless claims" consistently decreases, then the chances are that the indicator "Nonfarm payrolls" will increase. Have limited influence on the market. Reducing the number of applications for unemployment benefits is a favorable factor for the growth of the dollar. Published weekly on Thursdays at 13:30 GMT.

Leading Indicators - The index of leading indicators - It is a weighted average index of indicators such as: "production orders", "number of applications for unemployment benefits", "indicators of money supply M, the average working week", "building permits real estate "Prices for basic actions, orders for durable goods", "index of consumer confidence." It is believed that it characterizes the development of the economy over the next 6 months. There is also a rule of thumb that the output value of the indicator in the negative region for three consecutive months is an indicator of a slowdown of the economy. Have limited influence on the market. Its limited impact due to the fact that the index value goes through a month after the reporting period, when virtually all the major indexes have been published. The growth index value leads to an increase in the dollar. Published in the first days of each month at 15:00 GMT.

Michigan sentiment index - index of consumer sentiment University of Michigan - This index is a survey of consumers on the subject of confidence in the current economic situation. The survey carried out by personnel of the University of Michigan USA. The report is published twice a month: the second week (usually Friday) about 15 of the reporting month (preliminary), and two weeks (final). Have limited influence on the market. The growth index value leads to an increase in the dollar. This indicator - nothing but a reflection of the willingness of consumers to spend their money. Published twice a month (preliminary and final) at 15:00 GMT.

New home sales - Sales of new homes - The figure shows the number of sold or offered for sale houses designed for one family for a year - this number tends to increase when increasing the rate on loans secured by real estate, which is connected with the main interest rates in the country . These data, by reason of the real estate market, subject to seasonal fluctuations. Therefore, when analyzing the target "New home sales" use "moving averages" (moving average). Have limited influence on the market. The increase its value has a positive impact on the currency. Published in the first days of each month at 15:00 GMT.

Nonfarm payrolls - Number of new jobs created in non-agricultural sectors of the economy for a month - Payroll - a payroll for which salary is given to employees. This is a very strong indicator that shows the change in the level of employment in the country. Have a significant impact on the market. The growth of this indicator characterizes the increase in employment and leads to an increase in the dollar. It is called "indicator that moves the markets." There is a rule of thumb that an increase in its value at 200 000 per month is equivalent to an increase in GDP at 3.0%. Published the first Friday of each month at 13:30 GMT.

NY Fed Empire State Index - Production Index of New York - Calculated as a weighted average of the nine regional indices (new orders, deliveries, backlog, delivery time, inventory, prices paid, price orders, unemployment, average times during the working week). Calculated on the information industry of the New York region. Have limited influence on the market. The growth of this indicator is good for the dollar. Published in the middle of each month at 13:30 GMT

Personal income - personal income - change in this indicator characterizes the state of people's purchasing power. The growth of its value at a normal level of spending can lead to an increase in the volume of retail sales, which is a positive factor for the development of national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar. Have limited influence on the market. Published after the 20 th of each month at 13:30 GMT.

Personal spending - Personal expenses - The index reflects changes in the level of funds to meet personal needs. The index includes three components: the cost of purchasing durable goods, nondurable and services. On the consumption of durable goods and nondurable provides an indicator of "Retail sales" (retail sales). The process of consumption of services, in turn, varies with a relatively constant rate, so the value of this indicator is often predictable. Thus, the only significant deviation of this index and the predicted values can influence the rate of national currency. Have a significant impact on the market. The growth of its value is a positive factor for the development of national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar. Published after the 20 th of each month at 13:30 GMT at the same time with the exponent "Personal income".

Philadelphia Fed index - The index of business activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - It is a survey of producers in Philadelphia for their relationship to the current economic situation. The numbers below the "0" are an indicator of a slowing economy. Have a significant impact on the market. Behind him is closely watched, because this index is published before the index "ISM", and may give an idea of how will an indicator of business activity at the national level. The growing importance of this index leads to an increase in the dollar. Published on the third Thursday of each month at 17:00 GMT.

Productivity - Productivity - The index shows the change in volume of output per one worker. Productivity is a very important indicator to analyze the state of the economy. Have a significant impact on the market. However, it is necessary to follow closely, as it from time to time may be misleading. For example, a decrease in the number employed in manufacturing during the stagnation in the economy leads to increased productivity. The same may also occur as a result of strikes. The growth of the index value is a positive factor for the development of national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar. Published every quarter, to 10 th of the month of publication in 13:30 GMT.

Unit labor cost - Cost per unit of output - The index characterizes the costs associated with the production per unit of output. It is an important indicator of the efficiency of the economy. Have a significant impact on the market. It serves as a good indicator of inflationary pressures associated with salary increases. The standard analysis of this index is carried out in the context of the figures reflecting the value of index "Productivity" (Productivity). The growth of value per unit of output, along with the growth of labor productivity may lead to the increase in policy interest rates, which is a positive factor for the growth of the dollar. Published every quarter, to 10 th of the month of publication in the 13:30 GMT at the same time with the exponent "Productivity".

Wholesale inventories - Inventories at warehouses wholesale - index characterizes the relationship between wholesalers and retailers. Gives an overview of trends in these sectors, which can be projected on the economy as a whole. "Overstocking" warehouses may indicate the presence of stagnation in the economy. Have limited influence on the market. Stable trends in its dynamics has a great influence on the market. Growth index value has a negative impact on the dollar. Published 10 th of each month at 15:00 GMT.

U.S. Economic Indicators, Part 1

Key indicators of the U.S.:

Average hourly earnings - hourly average earnings - is expressed in absolute value and as an index relative to the previous review period. Is an indicator of potential inflation-related increases in the cost of labor. Have limited influence on the market. In the standby increase the basic interest rate increase in its value could lead to an increase in the dollar. Published the first Friday of each month at 13:30 GMT at the same time with the exponent "Nonfarm payrolls".

Average workweek - Average length of the workweek - The indicator shows the average workweek during the month. The market has almost no effect. Used for long-term analysis of the employment in the country. It is an informative indicator of the labor market at different stages of economic cycle. He is considered one of the key indicators for indicators such as "Industrial production" (Industrial Production) and "Personal income" (Personal Income), the values of which are published later. Published the first Friday of each month at 13:30 GMT at the same time with the exponent "Nonfarm payrolls".

Building permits - Building Permits - The indicator shows the number of permits for new homes. Have limited influence on the market. The increase its value has a positive impact on the currency. The indicator is very sensitive to changes in policy interest rates, since the construction is necessary to take bank loans. These data, by reason of the real estate market, subject to seasonal fluctuations. The construction process is directly related to state income. Therefore, the increase in the volume of construction is characterized by improving their well-being and healthy development of the economy. Published in the third week of each month at 13:30 GMT at the same time with the exponent "Housing starts".

Business inventories - stocks of goods, components and semi-finished products in storage - There is the following pattern: an increase in stock for several months may indicate the presence of stagnation in the economy. Have limited influence on the market. However, the steady trend in its dynamics has a great influence on the market. Growth index value has a negative impact on the dollar. Published in the middle of each month at 13:30 GMT.

Capacity utilization - Capacity utilization - Defines the degree of utilization of productive capacity of the economy. The level of 85% indicates a good balance between economic growth and inflation. Exceeding this level causes inflation in the economy. Have limited influence on the market. The growth of this index leads to a growth rate of national currency. Published in the middle of each month at 14:15 GMT at the same time with the indicator "Industrial production".

Chicago PMI - the index of activity of the Association of Managers in Chicago - It is a survey of purchasing managers in the industry in Chicago. This index affects the status of production orders, the prices of their products and inventory in warehouses. The numbers below the "45-50" are an indicator of a slowing economy. Behind him is closely watched because it is published shortly before the index of business activity of the National Association of Managers (NAPM). Have a significant impact on the market. It can give an idea of how will the indicator of business activity at the national level (ISM). The growth index value leads to an increase in the dollar. Published in the last business day of each month at 15:00 GMT.

Consumer confidence - The index of consumer confidence - This survey is an attempt to measure consumer optimism. The index is calculated since 1967. First, it was equal to "100". Have limited influence on the market, because it can not reflect the real state of the economy. However, it is traditionally used to predict trends in employment and the general state of the economy. The growth of the index value is a positive factor for the development of national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar. Published after the 20 th of each month at 15:00 GMT.

Construction spending - construction costs - The indicator is expressed as an index relative to the previous review period and in terms of absolute values of costs. The indicator is very sensitive to changes in policy interest rates, since the construction is necessary to take bank loans. These data, by reason of the real estate market, subject to seasonal fluctuations. The construction process is directly related to state income. Therefore, the increase in the volume of construction is characterized by improving their well-being and healthy development of the economy. Have limited influence on the market. The increase its value has a positive impact on the dollar. Published in the first business day of each month at 15:00 GMT.

Crude Stocks - Crude oil in the U.S. - shows the changes of oil reserves in the U.S. for a week. Also this figure went as data for individual types of energy. On the currency markets directly, not affecting. Published every Wednesday at 15:30 GMT.

Durable goods order - Orders for durable goods - For durable goods, those goods to the service life over three years - cars, furniture, etc. To highlight the variability inherent in the military and transportation orders, an indicator of this distinguished figures who are not take into account the orders for the defense industry (Durable goods orders excluding defence) and transport orders (Durable goods orders excluding transportation). This indicator is important for the market, as it gives an indication of confidence of consumers of these products in the current economic situation. Since durable goods are quite expensive, the increase in the number of orders for these shows willingness of consumers to spend on them more than their money. The growth of this indicator is a positive factor for economic development and leads to the growth rate of national currency. Published at the fourth week of each month at 13:30 GMT.

Export prices - prices for export - Index reflects price changes in exports for the month. Is an indicator of inflation. Have limited influence on the market. In the standby increase in policy interest rates increase the index value leads to an increase in the dollar. Published every month around the 10 th number in the 13:30 GMT at the same time with the exponent "Import prices".

Factory orders - Production Orders - Production orders include orders for durable goods (more than 50% of all orders) and short-term use. K-durable goods include food, clothing, light industry goods and products designed for operation with durable goods. For durable goods are products with a lifetime of more than three years - cars, furniture, etc. has had a limited impact on the market. Particular attention is paid to trends in its development. The growth of the index value is a positive factor for the development of national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar. Published in the first days of each month at 15:00 GMT.

Fed Beige Book - Economic Review Federal Reserve "Beige beech" - Produced by twelve U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. The review covers the sphere of industrial production, services, agriculture, financial institutions, labor market, real estate market. Have limited influence on the market. When the market there are rumors of a possible change in interest rates, then pay attention to that part of the review, which refers to the status of wages and prices. Review is helpful for confirming an already established trend in the economy. Published 8 times a year, on Wednesday, two weeks before the next FOMC meeting in the U.S. 17:00 GMT.

Federal budget - the state budget - measures the relationship between state income and expenditures. By exceeding the level of state revenues over expenditures generated a surplus. By exceeding the level of state expenditures over the income generated negative balance (deficit). Have little influence on the market. Usually it is used for long-term analysis of the economy. Budget deficit seen in the context of other indicators: the index of industrial prices (PPI), consumer price index (CPI), monetary aggregates (M1, M2, M3), and others published around the 20 th of each month at 19:00 GMT.

FOMC meeting results - decision of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee - As a rule, traders pay attention to the decision to change monetary policy, referred to several proposals in the statement (statement). Have limited influence on the market, but it happens that certain words (phrases) of the statement can have a significant impact on the market. Published immediately after the meeting at 19:15 GMT.

Foreign Capital Inflow (TIC) - Net inflow of foreign capital - Factor has become very important recently, because it shows the financing of the trade deficit. If the inflow exceeds the deficit, it is considered positive for the economy, whereas the reverse situation shows that the U.S. is unable to cover their perepotreblenie. Inflows of capital is divided into inflow from private investors (investment funds, hedge funds, etc.) and public investors (central banks). Also provides a breakdown by instruments: equities, government bonds, corporate bonds and agency bonds (Freddie Mae, Freddie Mac and others). Inflows of capital goes in the middle of the month after the trade balance. Time to 14:00 GMT.

FRB of Atlanta Index - The index of business activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - Represents the results of a survey of producers in Atlanta for their attitudes to the current economic situation. The numbers below the "0" are an indicator of a slowing economy. Its value is published after the 10 th of each month at 16:00 (GMT +2). This index has a limited impact on the market, as published after the indicator of business activity at the national level (NAPM index). The growing importance of this index is a favorable factor for the growth of the dollar.

GDP (advance) - Gross domestic product (GDP), a preliminary value - This indicator is the first step of the three levels of GDP data, which are published every quarter. Have a significant impact on the market. GDP growth leads to an increase rate of national currency. Published each quarter after the 20 th of the month at 13:30 GMT.

GDP (final) - Gross domestic product (GDP), the final value - This update of the revised value "GDP (provisional). Most of the differences between them are minimal. Therefore, these figures do not surprise the market. Have a significant impact on the market. GDP growth leads to an increase of the national currency. Published in the following month after the publication of "GDP provisional" after the 20 th number in 13:30 GMT.

GDP (revised) - Gross domestic product (GDP), the revised value - This update (revised) "prior value" GDP (advance). Have a significant impact on the market. GDP growth leads to an increase of the national currency. Published in the following month after the publication of "GDP advance" after the 20 th of a 13:30 GMT.

Help-wanted index - index number of required workers - measures the volume of published advertisements in newspapers on the hiring of workers and employees. 1987 was adopted for the base, then its value was "100". In his analysis of the use of "moving averages" (moving average). If the moving average shows a change in trend of the index for several months, it could be a sign of the changing situation on the labor market. Also, the index can give an idea of possible change in the economic situation in different regions of the country. Virtually no effect on the market. Its influence is limited to what is taken into account only a limited number of major regional newspapers. Its value is published, usually the last Thursday of each month at 17:00 (GMT +2).

Home sales - houses for sale on the secondary housing market - Indicator shows how the number of homes sold on the secondary real estate market. This segment is about 85% of the U.S. housing market.

Housing starts - Construction of new homes - The indicator shows the number of new homes, construction of which has already begun. He is very sensitive to changes in policy interest rates in the country, since the construction is necessary to take bank loans. These data, by reason of the real estate market, subject to seasonal fluctuations. The construction process is directly related to state income. Therefore, increasing the volume of construction is characterized by improving their well-being and healthy development of the economy. Have limited influence on the market. The increase its value has a positive impact on the currency. Published in the third week of each month at 13:30 GMT at the same time with the exponent "Building permits".