Friday, June 18, 2010

U.S. Economic Indicators, Part 1

Key indicators of the U.S.:

Average hourly earnings - hourly average earnings - is expressed in absolute value and as an index relative to the previous review period. Is an indicator of potential inflation-related increases in the cost of labor. Have limited influence on the market. In the standby increase the basic interest rate increase in its value could lead to an increase in the dollar. Published the first Friday of each month at 13:30 GMT at the same time with the exponent "Nonfarm payrolls".

Average workweek - Average length of the workweek - The indicator shows the average workweek during the month. The market has almost no effect. Used for long-term analysis of the employment in the country. It is an informative indicator of the labor market at different stages of economic cycle. He is considered one of the key indicators for indicators such as "Industrial production" (Industrial Production) and "Personal income" (Personal Income), the values of which are published later. Published the first Friday of each month at 13:30 GMT at the same time with the exponent "Nonfarm payrolls".

Building permits - Building Permits - The indicator shows the number of permits for new homes. Have limited influence on the market. The increase its value has a positive impact on the currency. The indicator is very sensitive to changes in policy interest rates, since the construction is necessary to take bank loans. These data, by reason of the real estate market, subject to seasonal fluctuations. The construction process is directly related to state income. Therefore, the increase in the volume of construction is characterized by improving their well-being and healthy development of the economy. Published in the third week of each month at 13:30 GMT at the same time with the exponent "Housing starts".

Business inventories - stocks of goods, components and semi-finished products in storage - There is the following pattern: an increase in stock for several months may indicate the presence of stagnation in the economy. Have limited influence on the market. However, the steady trend in its dynamics has a great influence on the market. Growth index value has a negative impact on the dollar. Published in the middle of each month at 13:30 GMT.

Capacity utilization - Capacity utilization - Defines the degree of utilization of productive capacity of the economy. The level of 85% indicates a good balance between economic growth and inflation. Exceeding this level causes inflation in the economy. Have limited influence on the market. The growth of this index leads to a growth rate of national currency. Published in the middle of each month at 14:15 GMT at the same time with the indicator "Industrial production".

Chicago PMI - the index of activity of the Association of Managers in Chicago - It is a survey of purchasing managers in the industry in Chicago. This index affects the status of production orders, the prices of their products and inventory in warehouses. The numbers below the "45-50" are an indicator of a slowing economy. Behind him is closely watched because it is published shortly before the index of business activity of the National Association of Managers (NAPM). Have a significant impact on the market. It can give an idea of how will the indicator of business activity at the national level (ISM). The growth index value leads to an increase in the dollar. Published in the last business day of each month at 15:00 GMT.

Consumer confidence - The index of consumer confidence - This survey is an attempt to measure consumer optimism. The index is calculated since 1967. First, it was equal to "100". Have limited influence on the market, because it can not reflect the real state of the economy. However, it is traditionally used to predict trends in employment and the general state of the economy. The growth of the index value is a positive factor for the development of national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar. Published after the 20 th of each month at 15:00 GMT.

Construction spending - construction costs - The indicator is expressed as an index relative to the previous review period and in terms of absolute values of costs. The indicator is very sensitive to changes in policy interest rates, since the construction is necessary to take bank loans. These data, by reason of the real estate market, subject to seasonal fluctuations. The construction process is directly related to state income. Therefore, the increase in the volume of construction is characterized by improving their well-being and healthy development of the economy. Have limited influence on the market. The increase its value has a positive impact on the dollar. Published in the first business day of each month at 15:00 GMT.

Crude Stocks - Crude oil in the U.S. - shows the changes of oil reserves in the U.S. for a week. Also this figure went as data for individual types of energy. On the currency markets directly, not affecting. Published every Wednesday at 15:30 GMT.

Durable goods order - Orders for durable goods - For durable goods, those goods to the service life over three years - cars, furniture, etc. To highlight the variability inherent in the military and transportation orders, an indicator of this distinguished figures who are not take into account the orders for the defense industry (Durable goods orders excluding defence) and transport orders (Durable goods orders excluding transportation). This indicator is important for the market, as it gives an indication of confidence of consumers of these products in the current economic situation. Since durable goods are quite expensive, the increase in the number of orders for these shows willingness of consumers to spend on them more than their money. The growth of this indicator is a positive factor for economic development and leads to the growth rate of national currency. Published at the fourth week of each month at 13:30 GMT.

Export prices - prices for export - Index reflects price changes in exports for the month. Is an indicator of inflation. Have limited influence on the market. In the standby increase in policy interest rates increase the index value leads to an increase in the dollar. Published every month around the 10 th number in the 13:30 GMT at the same time with the exponent "Import prices".

Factory orders - Production Orders - Production orders include orders for durable goods (more than 50% of all orders) and short-term use. K-durable goods include food, clothing, light industry goods and products designed for operation with durable goods. For durable goods are products with a lifetime of more than three years - cars, furniture, etc. has had a limited impact on the market. Particular attention is paid to trends in its development. The growth of the index value is a positive factor for the development of national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar. Published in the first days of each month at 15:00 GMT.

Fed Beige Book - Economic Review Federal Reserve "Beige beech" - Produced by twelve U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. The review covers the sphere of industrial production, services, agriculture, financial institutions, labor market, real estate market. Have limited influence on the market. When the market there are rumors of a possible change in interest rates, then pay attention to that part of the review, which refers to the status of wages and prices. Review is helpful for confirming an already established trend in the economy. Published 8 times a year, on Wednesday, two weeks before the next FOMC meeting in the U.S. 17:00 GMT.

Federal budget - the state budget - measures the relationship between state income and expenditures. By exceeding the level of state revenues over expenditures generated a surplus. By exceeding the level of state expenditures over the income generated negative balance (deficit). Have little influence on the market. Usually it is used for long-term analysis of the economy. Budget deficit seen in the context of other indicators: the index of industrial prices (PPI), consumer price index (CPI), monetary aggregates (M1, M2, M3), and others published around the 20 th of each month at 19:00 GMT.

FOMC meeting results - decision of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee - As a rule, traders pay attention to the decision to change monetary policy, referred to several proposals in the statement (statement). Have limited influence on the market, but it happens that certain words (phrases) of the statement can have a significant impact on the market. Published immediately after the meeting at 19:15 GMT.

Foreign Capital Inflow (TIC) - Net inflow of foreign capital - Factor has become very important recently, because it shows the financing of the trade deficit. If the inflow exceeds the deficit, it is considered positive for the economy, whereas the reverse situation shows that the U.S. is unable to cover their perepotreblenie. Inflows of capital is divided into inflow from private investors (investment funds, hedge funds, etc.) and public investors (central banks). Also provides a breakdown by instruments: equities, government bonds, corporate bonds and agency bonds (Freddie Mae, Freddie Mac and others). Inflows of capital goes in the middle of the month after the trade balance. Time to 14:00 GMT.

FRB of Atlanta Index - The index of business activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - Represents the results of a survey of producers in Atlanta for their attitudes to the current economic situation. The numbers below the "0" are an indicator of a slowing economy. Its value is published after the 10 th of each month at 16:00 (GMT +2). This index has a limited impact on the market, as published after the indicator of business activity at the national level (NAPM index). The growing importance of this index is a favorable factor for the growth of the dollar.

GDP (advance) - Gross domestic product (GDP), a preliminary value - This indicator is the first step of the three levels of GDP data, which are published every quarter. Have a significant impact on the market. GDP growth leads to an increase rate of national currency. Published each quarter after the 20 th of the month at 13:30 GMT.

GDP (final) - Gross domestic product (GDP), the final value - This update of the revised value "GDP (provisional). Most of the differences between them are minimal. Therefore, these figures do not surprise the market. Have a significant impact on the market. GDP growth leads to an increase of the national currency. Published in the following month after the publication of "GDP provisional" after the 20 th number in 13:30 GMT.

GDP (revised) - Gross domestic product (GDP), the revised value - This update (revised) "prior value" GDP (advance). Have a significant impact on the market. GDP growth leads to an increase of the national currency. Published in the following month after the publication of "GDP advance" after the 20 th of a 13:30 GMT.

Help-wanted index - index number of required workers - measures the volume of published advertisements in newspapers on the hiring of workers and employees. 1987 was adopted for the base, then its value was "100". In his analysis of the use of "moving averages" (moving average). If the moving average shows a change in trend of the index for several months, it could be a sign of the changing situation on the labor market. Also, the index can give an idea of possible change in the economic situation in different regions of the country. Virtually no effect on the market. Its influence is limited to what is taken into account only a limited number of major regional newspapers. Its value is published, usually the last Thursday of each month at 17:00 (GMT +2).

Home sales - houses for sale on the secondary housing market - Indicator shows how the number of homes sold on the secondary real estate market. This segment is about 85% of the U.S. housing market.

Housing starts - Construction of new homes - The indicator shows the number of new homes, construction of which has already begun. He is very sensitive to changes in policy interest rates in the country, since the construction is necessary to take bank loans. These data, by reason of the real estate market, subject to seasonal fluctuations. The construction process is directly related to state income. Therefore, increasing the volume of construction is characterized by improving their well-being and healthy development of the economy. Have limited influence on the market. The increase its value has a positive impact on the currency. Published in the third week of each month at 13:30 GMT at the same time with the exponent "Building permits".

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